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16 de septiembre de 2016

2016/2017 initial Spanish lemon harvest forecast released


AILIMPO expects a harvest of 980.000 tons, wich will be a 22% increase.

Spanish lemon crop will recover going back to normalcy nearly reaching one million tons. 

Spain will consolidate its status as the EU's bellwether supplier in terms of quantity, quality and food safety with a market share that will exceed 80%. 

AILIMPO's initial lemon harvest estimate (forecast) for the 2016/2017 season points toward a production figure in Spain of 980.000 tons, a 22% increase on the production balance in the 2015/2016 season, closing in August at 802,680 tons of lemons harvested. 

With this data for the upcoming season nearly reaching 1,0 million tons, Spain recovers normal figures thanks to the effect of new plantations, though not reaching the potential crop of 1,2 million tons in consideration of the surface and planted trees. The reason can be found in the unusual weather conditions this year with no real winter but a very long spring. 

Spain will continue consolidating its dominant position in the European market, where it is the undisputed leader with a market share of over 80% 

Lemon season starting 

Lemon season will start during the month of September as usual, with harvest and export activity developing at good speed in October. Two main factors have to be considered as can determine the availability for the first limited lemons in September: the uncertainty surrounding the availability of water and the weather in August. Nonetheless conditions are quite good at this stage, with day and night-time temperatures contrasting. 

General outlook 

The expected increase in the lemon harvest and return to normalcy will also enable to satisfy the growing demand of the domestic market and re-launch exports to third-country markets outside the EU such as the Middle East, Canada or Brazil, thus taking further steps in the diversification of markets that began some years ago. 

Moreover, an increasing trend is expected as well in the EU markets particularly in light of the Turkish lemons, which were listed by the European Commission (Regulation (EU) nº 2016/443) as products that must comply with special border screening because of their recurrent failure to fulfill European legislation regarding pesticides, a situation that seriously affects the reliability of Turkish lemons and a key point that supermarket chains and European consumers should bear in mind.       

This forecast will also enable the nomalize the lemon processing activity. Spain is currently ranked second worldwide in processing, which plays a key role in regulating the fresh market balance. 

SPANISH LEMON PRODUCTION 

2015/16 MY *

Production

2016/17 MY **

Estimate

Variation (%)

802,680

980,000

+22%

 

Historical Record of Lemon Production in Spain

 

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16*

2016/17**

 
 

Production

1,090,000

553,000

946,000

682,000

936,000

977,000

830,000

1,024,000

1,154,000

802,000

980,000

 

TONS *Provisional data at the close of the 2015/16 campaign  ** Initial Ailimpo harvest forecast 

 

AVERAGE OF LAST 10 SEASONS (2006-2015)

FIRST FORECAST FOR 2016/2017 SEASON

Production

902,000

980,000

 

 

 

Upcoming Updates: Ailimpo will revise the forecasts on:

 

ü  Thursday, 29 September 2016

ü  Thursday, 26 January 2017

 

Note on Methodology: Ailimpo drew up this technical report following the work protocol on the basis of aggregated information from surveys conducted with producers, cooperative farming organizations, exporters and processors, with field information from their orchards.

 

 ABOUT AILIMPO 

Ailimpo is the Spanish interbranch organization based in Murcia and officially recognized by the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture and the European Commission. The organization represents the economic interests of producers, cooperative farming organizations, exporters and industries of lemons and grapefruits in Spain, a sector in which Spain is the world's largest fresh fruit exporter and ranked second among processing countries with a turnover of €620 million annually, generating 15,000 direct jobs and auxiliary industry turnover of over €250 million. 

Ailimpo's duties under law include ensuring the appropriate workings of the food chain, entering into food and agricultural contracts/agreements, developing methods to control and rationalize the use of phytosanitary products to guarantee the quality of products and environmental protection, and fostering and promoting standards of quality and excellence in the sector. 

The lemon sector contributes to environmental sustainability with a net positive balance of 304,840 tons of CO2 sequestered yearly.